Abe Lincoln was right.
You can fool some of the people some of the time.
Bettors comprising two-thirds of the DraftKings handle backed the Los Angeles Chargers at -5.5 this past Monday night against the Denver Broncos. Their hopes were dashed in the Chargers’ 19-16 overtime triumph.
But you can’t fool all of the people all of the time.
A full 70% of the handle was on the Under 46 and those bettors had a cakewalk.
And sometimes, you can even offer a gift that’s not received.
DraftKings had a prop with Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert to throw at least one touchdown pass against the Broncos. It was boosted from -800 to +100. As close to a gimme as books will do now, because gimmes are expensive.
Yet Herbert, shockingly, did not toss a TD.
Go figure.
And now the prospect of who does or doesn’t get fooled arises again.
The Chargers, a weak home favorite (1-2 versus the spread) host the Seattle Seahawks at -5 at DraftKings on Sunday.
The betting line opened at 6.5 and Seahawks bettors devoured the number, shoving it back to 5.
Seattle money still rode this betting train as of mid-week, at 81% of the handle.
What could be head-scratching to some is the total. At 51, it’s the highest on the DraftKings board, the only one above 50, and 63% of the handle is on the Over.
Some may like the Under after watching the Chargers offense scuffle last week.
Here are some of the prop bets established for Week 7 at DraftKings.
Chargers vs. Seahawks props
- Austin Ekeler and Kenny Walker of Seattle to combine for 200 rushing yards and two combined rushing or receiving touchdowns. That’s +400 and a big payout for a good reason. Ekeler is such a receiving force, having 10 catches last week, that it takes away from his rushing total.
Bettors who take this selection expect a ground-game battle.
- The Chargers’ over-under for points is 28.5. It’s playable at -110 each way.
- Will the Chargers score four touchdowns or more? That’s +100 for yes and -140 for no.
- The Chargers to score first and win is +110 and not necessarily a great value.
If bettors want to tweak the prop and hope for some luck, Seattle to score first and lose is +260. A Chargers bettor is hoping for a 3-0 Seahawks lead followed by a Chargers avalanche.
Taking that to another level, a halftime tie followed by a Chargers win is +1700. A first-half win by Seattle, followed by the Chargers winning the game, is +550.
Watch for props on Ekeler as an anytime touchdown and first-touchdown scorer.
Consider whether Mike Williams will have a breakout game on the heels of a quiet one. That often is his pattern.
Williams only had two catches for 17 yards against the Broncos, who blanketed him last week. That was an advantage to Josh Palmer, who snared nine aerials last week.
Keenan Allen, out five weeks with a hamstring injury, is practicing. It might be logical to keep him out until the bye week, but if he makes enough progress, he’ll be playing. That would also lessen some of the defensive pressure from Williams.
And with Herbert not throwing a TD last week, he might toss three this week.
Take a good look at the Chargers’ placekicking situation.
Dustin Hopkins is out 2-4 weeks with a hamstring injury. The Chargers are likely to put as little pressure as possible on replacement Taylor Bertolet. And coach Brandon Staley often uses kickers as a last resort, seeking fourth-down conversions over field-goal attempts.
The Chargers are not likely to have four field goals, as they did last week.
A Deeper Look at the Chargers
Houdini is in the house. This 4-2 team is getting some major breaks and escaping some undesirable verdicts.
There were two gifts two weeks back in the 30-28 triumph over the Cleveland Browns. One was a Jacoby Brissett interception tossed at the Chargers goal line late when the Browns were in field goal range.
But after the Chargers gave them the ball back 10 yards away from setting up a game-winning field goal, the Browns missed that one wide right.
Against Denver, the Chargers caught a colossal break. The Broncos muffed the overtime punt. That set up a field goal to forgive this:
The Chargers had three possession in overtime. They did not make a first down.
But they still won the game.
Here is an odd stat:
The Chargers have given up more points than they have scored. They have tallied 141 and yielded 152. The 38-10 Week 3 blowout loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars accounts for the point differential, but the Chargers are nonetheless in a bevy of one-score games.
Winning Ugly is Still Winning
If they beat Seattle, the Chargers will gladly take a 5-2 mark into the bye week, regardless of how inconsistent they have been.
Johnny Avello, the director of race and sportsbook operations for DraftKings, told mylasports.com:
“They could get to the break with a nice record and kind of regroup. You would have to be happy with where they are but personally, I expected a little more from them.
“The schedule has been a little soft for them,” he added, referring to the fact that the Chargers have only faced one team with a winning record. And they lost that one, albeit closely at 27-24 to the Chiefs in Week 2.
“You would think it would be easier for them to move the ball against the Seahawks and you might expect a big game from them,” Avello added. “But for some reason, the offenses are coming up short every week. One of these weeks, we are going to have a lot of scoring and the chalk teams are going to do well, but so far that hasn’t happened.”
Indeed, four massive chalks prevailed on the moneyline last week at DraftKings.
The New York Jets upended the Green Bay Packers 27-10 and paid +265. The Pittsburgh Steelers at +10.5 throttled the Tampa Bay Bucs 20-18 and returned +350. The New York Giants paid +200 for their 24-20 triumph over the Baltimore Ravens at +6.5. And the Atlanta Falcons stunned the San Francisco 49ers 28-14 at +4.5 and they paid +190.
Chargers bettors are glad their team was not added to that list.
