Los Angeles Chargers bettors have an extra day to peruse line wagering and prop bets in NFL Week 6.
That’s because the Chargers are the prime-time game this week, hosting the Denver Broncos on Monday night.
Here are some considerations gamblers will place into the process of wagering.
AFC West Division odds
The Kansas City Chiefs are the -225 chalk in the AFC West and commandeer 54% of the handle at DraftKings. The Chargers are second at +250 and 26% of the wagers.
This is a tall task for the Chargers. The Chiefs have a certain type of magic and good fortune, like their 30-29 win over the Las Vegas Raiders that included the Raiders failing on a two-point conversion to take the lead with more than four minutes remaining. That took the pressure off the Chiefs to score again.
Because of that outcome, the division-odds price stayed higher for gamblers who want to take the 3-2 Chargers on this wager.
And it could soon come down. Should the Chargers defeat Denver and the Chiefs lose at home to the Buffalo Bills this week, the odds will drop closer to +150 for Los Angeles.
Anyone backing the Chargers in this bet wants to make the move before the Chiefs lose another game.
Chargers Season Win Totals
This is often adjusted weekly and it has a fair number on either betting side. The Chargers’ over-under for win totals is 10.5. It’s -110 either way.
That brings projection into the picture.
Do you see an 8-4 finish for this 3-2 team?
Anyone who wants the Over does not have to be in a hurry to make this wager. A slew of wins already looks to be baked into the line. The Chargers host the Broncos and then the Seattle Seahawks before visiting the Atlanta Falcons.
This is the time they are projected to roll and that already looks to be accounted for.
But this number won’t be easy for a team that must also play the San Francisco 49ers, the Chiefs and Raiders for a second time and the Miami Dolphins with Tua Tagovailoa presumably back. They also play the Rams in a mutual home game at SoFi Stadium.
The urgency may rest with Under bettors. Any loss by the Chargers in the next three weeks will reduce the projected win total. The value in this wager lies in making it before the Chargers lose another game.
SoFi a Difference Maker?
Johnny Avello, the director of race and sportsbook operations for DraftKings, believes the Chargers finally have a home-field edge in SoFi Stadium.
When based in San Diego, the Chargers were considered an excellent road dog and a poor home favorite.
Bettors jumped on that pattern.
Avello told mylasports.com:
“When they were in San Diego, for some reason that stadium seemed neutral. It did not feel like it was a strong home field at all.
“This one is different. The atmosphere is electrifying for them now. I do consider this an edge for the Chargers.”
The jury is out this year. The Chargers covered in Week 1 against the Raiders and were blown out in Week 3 by the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Avello considers the Chargers “a solid football team. They didn’t beat anybody yet, but this is the NFL. Winning on the road is not easy.”
And the Chargers just did it twice, topping the Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns in consecutive weeks.
Avello considers the +1800 on the Chargers to win the Super Bowl too short.
“I would like to get 30-1 (+3000) on them,” he said. “Right now, from what they have shown, they are not a good value on the futures.”
Avello believes Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson and Indianapolis Colts acquisition Matt Ryan are the season’s two early busts.
And here come the offensively-challenged Broncos into SoFi.
Nobody scores fewer points than the Denver Broncos, not even the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Broncos enter Week 6 with 75 total points, the lowest in all of football.
They have twice finished with nine points. They even won a game with 11 points. Somehow, this team is 2-3.
And somehow, had Cade York made the 54-yard game-ending field goal for the Cleveland Browns last week, the Broncos would have shown the same record as the Chargers.
But he didn’t and they don’t.
For the Chargers, the softest part of the schedule beckons.
Monday Night Wagers
The spread of Los Angeles -5 and the total of 45.5 are interesting numbers.
The -5 spread is a border between a moderate and strong favorite. If it drifts to -5.5, Chargers bettors may believe they are laying too much. They would like to see that line inch down to -4.5.
As for the total, it may be tweak-worthy.
Having Herbert in a prime-time showdown with weapons like Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams hints at points. Keenan Allen’s return from a hamstring injury won’t be determined until close to game time. He would add punch to the offense.
The Chargers have rediscovered Ekeler and are using him properly in both running plays and swing passes.
At midweek, 75% of the DraftKings handle was on the Under.
Anyone who liked the total last week feasted on the Chargers-Cleveland Browns Over, which was banked by the third quarter of the 30-28 Chargers victory.
Over bettors may consider moving the total down a couple points and trying to link it up with something else in a parlay.
Here are some other contrarian possibilities:
The Broncos were embarrassed on the national stage in a 12-9 overtime setback against the Indianapolis Colts last week.
This is the NFL. Teams can’t be THIS bad offensively, one would think.
If the Broncos score a first-quarter touchdown, that returns +210.
(If the Chargers tally a first-quarter TD, it’s -115).
If the Broncos score first and lose the game, that’s +275. Thus, if the Broncos offense shows up at all, this could be a cashing opportunity for the bettors.
These are attractive money-making targets for anyone who believes the game will produce more offense than the line suggests.
If you project a low-scoring game, point-scoring bands could become interesting.
The Broncos pay +475 if their total falls between 0-10.
Chargers point bands pay +250 for 11-20 and +130 for 21-30. If you think they can solve a good Denver defense, it’s +295 from 31-40.
